To supplement Wilso's explanation, "Per episode" could be used as a very rough ballpark estimate of how likely the average person would be to get infected in any given sexual encounter. Taking an example value of 1 in 5'000, that would mean that out of 5000 sexual encounters, 1 of them would be expected to lead to infection.
While I would like to think that the risk would be as low as 1 in 10'000, ultimately with the large error margins in the available data that number could range anywhere from 1 in 1'000 to 1 in 10'000.
Not everybody is going to be average either. Some will get to that 1 sexual encounter sooner than others.
I know it is disappointing to have been infected and I hope that you are like many women with genital HSV-1; no more outbreaks, no more issues and are able to completely forget you even have it.
I am curious though as most guys you have been with and received oral sex from have oral HSV-1. What would you have done differently? Give up oral sex?
Per episode means each sexual encounter! Generally I divide the annual percentage by 100 (an assumed number of sexual episodes in a year) and take a reciprocal to express it as 1 in 5,000 or whatever the number is which is easier to interpret than 0.02%.
Hi, I've been searching around this section of these forums and haven't quite find what I was looking for. I'm a male and was wondering if anyone else on has GHSV1 within their urethra only. If so, what are your triggers or signs of outbreaks? What do your outbreaks look like within your urethra? Thank you!
With respect to the 23 million figure, I believe that was from the WHO source using 2003 data. Perhaps some of that could be HSV-1 misdiagnosed as HSV-2. Point taken.
I was just reading some more on this and a more recent paper using numbers from 2012 suggests 140 million new HSV-1 infections of which 85% (or 100 million) may be genital HSV-1. I'm curious as to why they used 85%. Take a look here if interested:
If we can get a good figure of new genital HSV-1 infections per year then we could settle this for sure. But if it is between 23 and 100 million then that's a roughly 5-fold difference so could be 1-5% per annum (so between 1 in 2'000 and 1 in 10'000 per episode).
I think the range sounds about right and that it's closer to 1% than it is to 5%.
It looks pretty good, I will need to test the maths and thinking a little more, although I am not sure it will advance our thinking (or accuracy to the point).
The main issue at the moment is that although it is suggested there are 23 million new HSV-2 infections each year, I'll wager that this includes quite a lot of HSV-1 infections already.
Based on other analysis I have done, I had come up with a rough figure of 1% per annum. I think we can go through a lot more work and be tossing around ranges of 1-2% per annum. Even at 2% per annum, you are talking about 1 in 5,000 per epsiodes and of course 1 in 10,000 at 1% which I think I quoted previously.
You reckon we are safe saying 1-2% per annum and between 1 in 5,000 to 1 in 10,000 per episode?