Is it true that only 25% of those with ghsv1 shed?

[Lovelylady1996]

I have read on multiple articles that merely 25% of people with genital hsv1 shed when not having an outbreak? 

I know there's no way to know if you're in the % but still. What do you guys think? 

[oneday]

Shedding is associated higher with and around the time of outbreaks. So the more outbreaks you have, often there will be a higher rate of shedding. Shedding of the virus still occurs with prodrome and when there are no symptoms. You can still have an outbreak and get no sores because the virus will still be on the skin so be careful. 

[WilsoInAus]

That's not quite what the studies conclude. Some studies have found that of women with genital HSV-1, about 25% have a shedding episode within 100 days. It is not clear how many would shed say over 1,000 or 10,000 days.

Shedding is also not an indication of infectiousness. PCR swabs can detect pretty much a single copy of the virus. Further, shedding studies test once a day. This might miss a rapid bloom of the virus which is now known to occur.

The average shedding is about 10-15 days a year (on the PCR daily swab definition) Are some people zero days forever, yes there are but I suspect this is less than 20%. It is therefore not surprising that only 25% of women were found to shed over a 100 day period. This seems correct in light of 10-15 shedding days a year.

What is much more important than shedding is actual infection. Most shedding does not result in enough virus to infect someone. Hence a person can shed daily but never infect someone compared to a person who sheds a few days a year but be highly infectious on those days.

There are no real studies on genital to genital HSV-1 transmission. It so rarely happens. Based on HSV-2 statistics. Female to male genital HSV-1 infection rates could be in the range of 0.5% to 1% per year or 100 episodes of sex. Some believe this is significantly overstated.

[oneday]

If there are no real studies on genital to genital hsv 1 transmission how can you conclude "it rarely happens"? 

[WilsoInAus]

Because with any studies that have commenced, no transmissions have occurred. For credibility, you'd need to observe around 50 transmissions hence the sample size needs to be 5,000 to 10,000 couples. It isn't really feasible to do this.

[oneday]

Transmission studies aren't current for ghsv 1 transmission as hsv 1 is accounting for a large proportion of new genital herpes diagnoses in developed countries. Basing conclusions about ghsv1 from ghsv 2 data is not completely accurate. 

[WilsoInAus]

There's no real evidence that there are more genital HSV-1 infections as a proportion of uninfected people, they were probably misdiagnosed as HSV-2 previously. Essentially HSV-1 has always accounted for a good proportion of genital infections. Remember previously that higher levels of oral HSV-1 incidence has meant lower genital HSV-1 levels.

[Lovelylady1996]

I've been diagnosed for 2 months now. How contagious am I likely to be as compared to 1 yr from now. (5yrs?)

[WilsoInAus]

I think I've seen some studies that suggest you are double or triple the level of shedding in the first year compared to subsequent years.

[Sanguine108]

Speculation on statistics...   The only way you'll be able to tell if and to what extent you're shedding is if you commission some lab to test swabs of your genitalia.   Otherwise, everyone is just throwing around that etheric ball of statistics that doesn't show where you are.

http://www.mdpi.com/1420-3049/16/9/7210/pdf
In this study, they do viral plaque assays as one way to assess HSV activity at .  It's at 3.5 Virus Detection

[Terrell]

On October 21, 2015 at 10:00:13 PM, WilsoInAus said:

That's not quite what the studies conclude. Some studies have found that of women with genital HSV-1, about 25% have a shedding episode within 100 days. It is not clear how many would shed say over 1,000 or 10,000 days.

Shedding is also not an indication of infectiousness. PCR swabs can detect pretty much a single copy of the virus. Further, shedding studies test once a day. This might miss a rapid bloom of the virus which is now known to occur.

The average shedding is about 10-15 days a year (on the PCR daily swab definition) Are some people zero days forever, yes there are but I suspect this is less than 20%. It is therefore not surprising that only 25% of women were found to shed over a 100 day period. This seems correct in light of 10-15 shedding days a year.

What is much more important than shedding is actual infection. Most shedding does not result in enough virus to infect someone. Hence a person can shed daily but never infect someone compared to a person who sheds a few days a year but be highly infectious on those days.

There are no real studies on genital to genital HSV-1 transmission. It so rarely happens. Based on HSV-2 statistics. Female to male genital HSV-1 infection rates could be in the range of 0.5% to 1% per year or 100 episodes of sex. Some believe this is significantly overstated.

Hey I was missed diagnosed for cellulitis then I asked for a culture which indicated I grew the hsv2 virus all blood negative of anything. My question is I had what strongly believe was a primary outbreak a year and a month ago I started praying and taking antivirals daily now my wife who has hsv1 wants to conceive again can I infect her if I take my daily antivirals and wear boxer shorts because my believed outbreak was on my left scrotum. I took my last test 7 months later and std specialist said my test was positive HSV and indicated it was new I contacted any partner around that time all say negative lol someone lying