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agamemnus

New Genocea 2a 12-month data details

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agamemnus

As I mention here, this data seems significant in two ways:

1) High, sustained levels of antibodies even at 12 months, based on titers.

2) There is development of polyfunctional T-cells, which indicates a very strong immune system response to the antigens/adjuvant and could potentially mean some resistance to HIV and other viruses. (HIV induces these same polyfunctional T-cells, after the fact)

 

McNeil_IDWeek2016_GEN-003-002-immunogeni

Edited by agamemnus

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fixme1
On 29/10/2016 at 7:55 AM, agamemnus said:

As I mention here, this data seems significant in two ways:

1) High, sustained levels of antibodies even at 12 months, based on titers.

2) There is development of polyfunctional T-cells, which indicates a very strong immune system response to the antigens/adjuvant and could potentially mean some resistance to HIV and other viruses. (HIV induces these same polyfunctional T-cells, after the fact)

 

McNeil_IDWeek2016_GEN-003-002-immunogeni

do you personally think its going to work ? you seem clued up on it all

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agamemnus

We already know it works to reduce viral shedding and reduce transmission rates. We also know you can't have lesions without shedding. We know that GEN-003 induces a strong and durable immune response. We know that it generates polyfunctional cells. We know it reduces recurrence-free lesion rates over 12 months to a degree similar to Valtrex. (and the first recurrence is verified by a doctor)

We also know that patients in the 2b are monitoring their lesions every day, instead of 28-day observation periods as in the 2a. (still 28-day periods for viral shedding, though)

I cannot tell you with certainty what the result will be of the 6-month P2b data in early January. Lesion rates are affected by many factors. I think there is a high likelihood, however, that lesion days rate reduction will be better than placebo, and I consider it a statistical near-certainty that the recurrence free rate will be similar to 2a data.

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agamemnus

I changed my mind about Halford. That post was complete nonsense, especially the "100 fold" part.

It's a 40% reduction, meaning this:

56 swabs were taken pre-dosing (X)

56 swabs were taken post-dosing (Y)

On average, Y = X * .6

That means 40% less transmission. At a minimum 40% less shedding in total as well. Swabs are either negative or positive -- if you have less shedding it is still a positive, so there is quite a possibility the actual reduction in viral count was much more than 40% -- and remember, this is right after the 3rd dose. At 12 months the reduction reached 60%+.

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Smart_1

So this guy says he is going to describe statistics to us laymen in simple terms, then he refers to statistical significance in the follwing way:

The threshold for “statistical significance” is 5%.  That is, if I ran this experiment 20 times, then 1 out of 20 times, the random noise of the measurements would give me the minute difference (e.g., 40%) that I am reporting.

This clearly is not in layman terms. 

I don't like this guy one bit. He is trying to say established scientific methods which have yielded years of medicine is not acceptable? 

Yes, in the field of biology, significance of 5% is frowned upon. Usually, significance of 1% is required for findings to be acceptable (what I have heard). In order to achieve a certain level of confidence, on has to have a large enough sample, this large enough number can be calculated with a simple equation, then, you get a sugnificance of 1% or smaller, as long as you get the required sample size. 5% significance level means that there is a 5% chance we are wrong. 

What is his intention of his blog, to discredit other studies? Well, a large enough sample will do that.

Can anyone tell me why you think he makes sense?

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Smart_1
1 minute ago, agamemnus said:

I changed my mind about Halford. That post was complete nonsense, especially the "100 fold" part.

It's a 40% reduction, meaning this:

56 swabs were taken pre-dosing (X)

56 swabs were taken post-dosing (Y)

On average, Y = X * .6

That means 40% less transmission. At a minimum 40% less shedding in total as well. Swabs are either negative or positive -- if you have less shedding it is still a positive, so there is quite a possibility the actual reduction in viral count was much more than 40% -- and remember, this is right after the 3rd dose. At 12 months the reduction reached 60%+.

Thank you for your post. You answered before I pressed post.

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honey_6974

What a relief that the outcome of Halford's research efforts are not determined by whether or not you two “like this guy”.

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agamemnus

@Smart_1 Separately, I remember reading earlier you were in a Genocea trial and it didn't help. Sorry to hear that. Were you in the 60/50 group (if you know)?

The antigen combo they are using is supposed to help the majority of people -- you are an outlier. :( It's possible in the future they'll develop other combos for other groups of people.

Edited by agamemnus

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Smart_1
Just now, honey_6974 said:
3 minutes ago, honey_6974 said:

What a relief that the outcome of Halford's research efforts are not determined by whether or not you two “like this guy”.

Well, Genocea outcomes will not depend on how he feels about it neither....hahahah

no one knows the outcome

that is why we have statistics which clearly holds findings to a good enough scrutiny. If we don't have any regulatory agency checking his findings, how we know he is not talking out of his arse?

just from that blog, I will guarantee you his studies will never be approved in the US or EU

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Smart_1
7 minutes ago, agamemnus said:

@Smart_1 Separately, I remember reading earlier you were in a Genocea trial and it didn't help. Sorry to hear that. Were you in the 60/50 group (if you know)?

The antigen combo they are using is supposed to help the majority of people -- you are an outlier. :( It's possible in the future they'll develop other combos for other groups of people.

To be honest, I take bovine colostrum which helps me. I would say that is the strongest negative effect just from stopping and starting over again. However, I don't know how much of my "good results are from taking the supplement (which is considered food: bovine colostrum) and how much are from vaccine. That is why we have researchers and stats. Therefore, I wouldnt mind if I am an outlier as long as tye average sufferer sees a difference. 

No scientist, imo, should knock other results, that is job of regulatory agencies.

 

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brookeb300
5 hours ago, Smart_1 said:

To be honest, I take bovine colostrum which helps me. I would say that is the strongest negative effect just from stopping and starting over again. However, I don't know how much of my "good results are from taking the supplement (which is considered food: bovine colostrum) and how much are from vaccine. That is why we have researchers and stats. Therefore, I wouldnt mind if I am an outlier as long as tye average sufferer sees a difference. 

No scientist, imo, should knock other results, that is job of regulatory agencies.

 

How do you take it?  Is there a certain brand that's good?

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valleynovascotia

is halford going to therapeuticly cure herpes?

 

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honey_6974
16 minutes ago, valleynovascotia said:

is halford going to therapeuticly cure herpes?

 

He has already done it, and he has written and spoken about this publicly many times. Please check his blog.

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valleynovascotia

from what i read it just redusces symptoms im looking for the cure lol.

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valleynovascotia
1 minute ago, Sanguine108 said:

next life time.

ouch this life if over

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agamemnus

I think that Valtrex + GEN003 will get more like 80-95% viral shedding reduction instead of 60-70%, because they are different mechanisms of action. However, there's still that 5% risk, so maybe in terms of concerns about infecting someone else, a quick and fast test kit would be commercially viable (I don't know what's out there -- just bloviating).

Genocea said they also started development of a more effective drug (with more proteins, etc.), but that is on hold to conserve cash, which is extremely prudent in this market environment.

I do believe that it is not just about the drug and immune system but other factors as well. Diet, exercise, etc.

Edited by agamemnus

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Lisajd
3 hours ago, valleynovascotia said:

ouch this life if over

Your life is not over because you have herpes

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valleynovascotia

my dating life is it has been for two years since i caught it.

Edited by valleynovascotia

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Constant Diplomat

What I would like to see, which I think would be a good way to measure how different variables influence our shedding rates, is an at home test that is cheap, and can be performed daily/every four hours or whatnot, to test for viral shedding. Say, I'll know whether the Valtrex is helping, or whether being hung over results in shedding etc.

I would totally do the Gen-003 combined with Valtrex, and I'd get Halford to whack me up too. Shedding wouldn't stand a chance on this ganglia!

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Juggalo
On 4.11.2016 at 8:46 AM, Smart_1 said:

To be honest, I take bovine colostrum which helps me. I would say that is the strongest negative effect just from stopping and starting over again. However, I don't know how much of my "good results are from taking the supplement (which is considered food: bovine colostrum) and how much are from vaccine. That is why we have researchers and stats. Therefore, I wouldnt mind if I am an outlier as long as tye average sufferer sees a difference. 

No scientist, imo, should knock other results, that is job of regulatory agencies.

 

If it were up to regulatory agencies like the FDA, the vaccines like Halford's would not get approved in decades, even if proven very effective. Because of one simple reason, it is how the system works. Something is more popular, better lobbied for, better backed, financed well and something else is not.

As an example Sweden is gonna be the first world's 100% renewable energy country, not because it is good or effective or it is green or the other "bullshit" but because people protested, it gained attention a lot and it happened (forced the politicians to decide). Just look at all the revived out-ofshelves dugged up ebola treatments. Something similar is not happening for herpes simplex treatment soon, at least not in the U.S. 

18 hours ago, agamemnus said:

I think that Valtrex + GEN003 will get more like 80-95% viral shedding reduction instead of 60-70%, because they are different mechanisms of action. However, there's still that 5% risk, so maybe in terms of concerns about infecting someone else, a quick and fast test kit would be commercially viable (I don't know what's out there -- just bloviating).

Genocea said they also started development of a more effective drug (with more proteins, etc.), but that is on hold to conserve cash, which is extremely prudent in this market environment.

I do believe that it is not just about the drug and immune system but other factors as well. Diet, exercise, etc.

It is silly for people to expect to be on drugs all the time. It just will make them less dependable on their immune system which is a critical thing to keep you healthy, also psychologically it is weird to take in drugs all the time cause it's  exhausting and i think humanity can do better than that. 

Edited by Juggalo

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