Exaggerated Statistics?

[Guest Anonymous]

OK they say that 80% of american adults have HSV-1 and about 50 million Americans have HSV-2. How can this be? If this was true then no one is safe from the virus. Why dont they just say that our chances of liking dying with the virus (I dont mean due to the virus) is very very great! There is no escaping it! 80%! Wow!

Signed,

Stunned 101

[MC37 Pilot]

Yeah, I've always wondered about those statistics....

Not that it really matters but I think they seem high.

[semensemen]

anyone with any light on this? i too am confused on how 1 in every 2 people can have HSV-1? that's a little absurd!

[motorcyclemaintainance]

anyone with any light on this? i too am confused on how 1 in every 2 people can have HSV-1? that's a little absurd

Why do you find it absurd? The figure is actually much higher than that.

It depends on the country you live in. There is essentially "no escaping" from it.

The most extensive study is here:

http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/full/10.1086/343739

And the reasons why the statistics might seem high are here:

http://www.herpesisnormal.com/

Basically, only 1 in 10 carriers will have symptoms, so you can have 100% of a population carrying herpes, and only 10% of them will know it. In some countries, Italy, for example, this is almost the case (93%). This is why the statistics seem high, but are in fact accurate.

Herpes is normal.

[gotitsowhat]

A lot of people

react like that to the statistics--herpes is MUCH more common than most people realize.

Two things to consider: Most of the time, herpes doesn't present any symptoms or the symptoms are so mild they are easily mistaken for something else. So most people who have it do not realize they have it.

Second, the social taboo makes it very hard for anyone to talk about it. No herpes sufferer ever wants to admit he or she has it. So when people are joking about herpes, you can bet that at least one member of the group is pretending to laugh along but is dying inside. I cannot count the number of posts on here that say, "I've never known anyone with an STD," but what that really means is that the poster has never met anyone who TOLD the poster he or she had herpes or some other STD. The stigma causes a huge silence to descend on this subject and that leaves people feeling isolated.

When I wore my herpes tee shirt around the boardwalk in Venice, CA last summer, one young guy who came up to me and talked to me about it said, "Thank you for being so open about it for those of us who are not brave enough to be that way." It is not something people discuss at all--which is pretty ridiculous when you consider that people talk about all kinds of very personal illnesses all the time. I remember when the daily newspaper back in the early 80s showed a full color photo of President Reagan's penis and scrotum because the president had just disclosed that he was about to have a prostate operation. And we all know lots of women who do not hesitate to use the word "hysterectomy" when discussing their gynecological problems.

Yes, herpes is extremely common, one of the most common conditions in the world. It's the frequently asymptomatic nature of hsv and the social stigma that makes it seem as if no one else has it. It IS very common.

[chooseyourbattles]

Intellectually I can believe it. Given that only about a fifth of people have noticeable symptoms, it can be contracted with a condom, doctors and clinics don't test for it, and nobody wants to talk about it, the 25% makes a lot of sense.

But it's still really hard to grasp. People tell me they don't believe it all the time. I'm still skeptical, even though people in the medical field have told me it could possibly even be more.

[Shayna]

I remember when the daily newspaper back in the early 80s showed a full color photo of President Reagan's penis and scrotum because the president had just disclosed that he was about to have a prostate operation.

Get outta town!! Somehow that shocks me ...I guess it being a presidential penis and all.

[gotitsowhat]

Actually...

Get outta town!! Somehow that shocks me ...I guess it being a presidential penis and all.

\\

My memory is that it was a diagram and an x-ray photo but it looked exactly like what it was. It kinda jolted me when I looked at the paper that day. I mean, the full color photo took up most of the front page....!

[notamused]

I was just about to post about this...

I've been wondering a couple of things about the stats... like how (for genital hsv2) can it apparently be 1 in 4 women in america and only 1 in 10 'people' in the UK? Our sexual practices surely aren't that different.

Also, where does this data even come from? diagnoses at sexual health clinics?

because if it does then do they factor in the fact that most people don't even know they have it?!

personally I think if anything its much higher. It just has to be. especially in my particular demographic - I live in london and am a student, everyone's boning everyone else like there's no tomorrow and I just cannot imagine how they would have escaped it!

[motorcyclemaintainance]

I've been wondering a couple of things about the stats... like how (for genital hsv2) can it apparently be 1 in 4 women in america and only 1 in 10 'people' in the UK?"

Although only 1 in 10 people across the whole of the UK carry HSV-2, the figure for sexually active people in the UK is 1 in 4.

See here: http://www.herpes.org.uk/

Estimates for the USA are currently 1 in 3 and rising -- the ASHA still predict 50% women and 40% men by 2025.

http://www.ashastd.org/pdfs/Herpes_factsheet.pdf

[foxyloxy25]

cdc figures

I was struggling with some of the cdc's latest US hsv-2 rates.

Their last statistics up to a few months ago were showing 25% of all women, with about 55% of black women, infected with hsv-2. These statistics were a good few years old, dating back to the 1990's I think.

They had another table showing the number of doctor's visits due to primary genital herpes, and in the intervening years between those last statistics and now, doctors visits due to primary herpes looked to have increased by 300%.

And yet their latest hsv-2 stats, published this year, show a decrease in hsv-2 infection! Can anyone else work this out? I extrapolated from the previous data that about a third of women would now have hsv-2, but apparently it has dropped instead!!

http://www.cdc.gov/std/stats07/tables/42.htm

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5807a6.htm?s_cid=mm5807a6_e

http://www.cdc.gov/std/Trends2000/herpes-close.htm

I can only surmise this is because those visits are for ALL genital herpes, not just hsv-2.

As someone else pointed out as well, the statistics tend to be skewed because they are for ALL people over the age of 12 - not for sexually active adults say 20 and above - where the infection rates will presumably be higher. Although the second link is for people aged 20-29 only and seems to be showing infection rates of only 10% among the white American population, with about 32% among black Americans and less among Hispanics etc.

Also, if anyone is interested, I found the latest stats for genital hsv-1 infection, which are showing that hsv-1 is the cause of 78% of new genital herpes infections - or at least it was in 2001; these statistics always seem to be years behind!

http://www.urotoday.com/browse_categories/sexually_transmitted_disease/hsv1_may_be_dominant_cause_of_genital_herpes.html

[solvingtheproblem]

yeah, it's wonky

I agree -- the stats can be a bit confusing. Especially since, for unstated reasons, dropped the 50-70 age range from the stats -- which undoubtedly skewed the ability to compare the "all age range" data. While they did correct for it in this graph, I believe the "1 in 4" stat commonly used *did* include that age range. Why NHANES decided to drop this age group is unfathomable to me...I know plenty of folks in their 50's who are still gettin' it on and can technically contribute to HSV transmission...

[ntdc]

Remember studies are conducted for several years then the data must be collected and analyized and then peer review process. Then the cycle goes again, so the process is rather slow and probably not a huge funding priority so the data lags but this is always the case medicine is usually 10-20 steps behind disease.

1/4 is probably safe to say for overall american population (men and women) but you know i tend to refute it when people on here cite it because most people dont realize the skew and they wonder why they are the only one of their 20 something friends who has herpes when the tv ads for valtrex say "1 in 4". I think its best to try to understand the subtlety of the statistics.

[GntiNh]

Statistics can be used to show what you want to show if you edit them - the old saying, lies, damn lies and statistics !

[ginnyp]

Well we always say hsv 1 or at 80% but that's only after a specific age. The percentage goes up as age goes up. I believe those over 30 have a 70% chance of having hsv1, those over 40 have closer to 80%, and over 50 it's at around 90%. That's because the more you live, the more possible to get exposed.

I don't think the stats are skewed. My bf was one of them that said no, he can't have it. There's no way. He's never had a cold sore, never had anything. Well, he tested positive for type 1. He's over 40, in the 80 percent range. The problem is there's people who never have symptoms and most people don't get tested.

I think anyone who has herpes should ask their partners to get tested so that you both can know where you really stand. If your partner has type 1, then there is some protection, and some acts are safer. Why not find out so you can either enjoy yourselves more or take extra precautions?

[jericho]

OK they say that 80% of american adults have HSV-1 and about 50 million Americans have HSV-2. How can this be?

I think most people have a similar reaction when they see the statistics on herpes prevalence. I know I certainly did. The government and medical community do little to educate the public, so we all tend to be blindsided by the very high infection rate of HSV. By contrast, the public is relatively very well educated about HIV.

Estimates for the USA are currently 1 in 3 and rising -- the ASHA still predict 50% women and 40% men by 2025.

http://www.ashastd.org/pdfs/Herpes_factsheet.pdf

That estimate is dated – it was made before the NHANES IV data showed that HSV-2 seroprevalence is declining, at least during the time period of the study.

They had another table showing the number of doctor's visits due to primary genital herpes, and in the intervening years between those last statistics and now, doctors visits due to primary herpes looked to have increased by 300%.

And yet their latest hsv-2 stats, published this year, show a decrease in hsv-2 infection! Can anyone else work this out? I extrapolated from the previous data that about a third of women would now have hsv-2, but apparently it has dropped instead!!

This apparent inconsistency is likely resolved by a few factors. It may be that increasing awareness of STDs in general is motivating more people to see their doctor when they have genital symptoms. Also, as you noted, the majority of new GH cases seem to be caused by HSV-1. GHSV-1 primary OBs tend to be worse than GHSV-2 primary OBs (mostly because the person with a new GHSV-1 infection likely has no prior HSV antibodies, while the person with a new GHSV-2 infection is more likely than not to have prior HSV-1 antibodies that help mitigate the severity of the outbreak). Since the GHSV-1 OBs tend to be more severe, it isn’t surprising that those persons take notice of the symptoms and seek diagnosis/treatment.

Well we always say hsv 1 or at 80% but that's only after a specific age. The percentage goes up as age goes up. I believe those over 30 have a 70% chance of having hsv1, those over 40 have closer to 80%, and over 50 it's at around 90%. That's because the more you live, the more possible to get exposed.

While it’s certainly true that the longer one lives, the more numerous the potential exposures, I very much doubt that the jumps in HSV-1 seroprevalance across age brackets is driven by new infections.

For example, according to the stats you cited, 70% of the 30-40 age group has HSV-1, and as does 80% of the 40-50 age group. That is a massive jump when you consider that the vast majority of 40-50 year olds in this country are married. Sure, there is cheating, but given how long the cheaters have likely had OHSV-1 (thus, fewer OBs and less shedding), it seems likely that only a very small percentage of cheating relationships result in HSV-1 transmission.

What I think is driving the data is the decline in OHSV-1. In the last few decades, there has been a growing awareness that cold sores are communicable. This has resulted in a decline in HSV-1 transmission. Naturally, in such an environment, you would expect to see that older age brackets have considerably higher rates of infection than younger age brackets.