What are the chances????

[JHenry]

I seem to run into the same question after disclosing, “what are the chances of transmission”?  As for me, I’ve been diagnosed for nearly 3 decades with GHSV2.  I’ve presented graphs, statements,  etc., and now realize that while they realize possibility is always present, they are looking for the “odds”, more or less of transmission—not a scientific response—in other words, how a layman would say it?

I take Valtrex, so I’m making another stab at it:   WITHOUT a condom, via asymptomatic shedding and taking anti-virals, what are the chances of transmission?  1/4 of a percent?  1 in 100?  1 in 500, 1 in 1000?    I need the KISS approach, just a simple, straightforward response to “what are the chances”.

Thanks,

Henry 

[Quest]

Herpes simplex virus-2 transmission probability estimates based on quantity of viral shedding - NCBI

by JT Schiffer · 2014 · Cited by 36 · Related articles

Feb 28, 2014 · Valaciclovir, dosed once daily, lowered the HSV-2 transmission rate in a clinical ...... Reactivation of genital herpes simplex virus type 2 infection in  

 

Maybe the answer is here. Did the westover heights contain the answer? Wilso would know. 

[JHenry]

4 hours ago, Quest said:

Herpes simplex virus-2 transmission probability estimates based on quantity of viral shedding - NCBI

by JT Schiffer · 2014 · Cited by 36 · Related articles

Feb 28, 2014 · Valaciclovir, dosed once daily, lowered the HSV-2 transmission rate in a clinical ...... Reactivation of genital herpes simplex virus type 2 infection in  

 

Maybe the answer is here. Did the westover heights contain the answer? Wilso would know. 

Quest, I do appreciate your effort—but I was a communications/marketing major in college, I’m lost in the article.   I haven’t looked into Westover, but will.  Hoping Wilson will weigh in.   I need something that I can share, in the simplest, layman’s terms.   Maybe thats not possible because of the nature and complexities?  Thanking you again, Henry

[LightafterDarkness]

I have seen the following numbers quoted on Reddit but I dont have a source (and yes reddit is not a good source, need the underlying medical research). My understanding is Male to female is going to be up to 2x (so doing nothing you have up to a 8% chance):

Quote

 

These are female to male transmission risks for PIV sex, when the woman has genital HSV2, based on relationships 3+ months old, avoiding sex during outbreaks, having sex on average twice per week:

4% risk of transmission after an entire year of sex if no condoms or antivirals are used.

2% risk of transmission after an entire year of sex if condoms OR antivirals are used.

1% risk of transmission after an entire year of sex if BOTH condoms AND antivirals are used.

 

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Herpes/comments/adin0v/transmission_rate_from_female_to_male/

 

[Cas9]

On 7/20/2019 at 1:57 PM, JHenry said:

As for me, I’ve been diagnosed for nearly 3 decades with GHSV2.  I’ve presented graphs, statements,  etc., and now realize that while they realize possibility is always present, they are looking for the “odds”, more or less of transmission—not a scientific response—in other words, how a layman would say it?

JHenry; I'm picturing you sitting on the bed with your potential sex partner and suddenly bringing in an easel with graphs and charts. Not very romantic 

[JHenry]

19 minutes ago, JHenry said:

Quest, I do appreciate your effort—but I was a communications/marketing major in college, I’m lost in the article.   I haven’t looked into Westover, but will.  Hoping Wilson will weigh in.   I need something that I can share, in the simplest, layman’s terms.   Maybe thats not possible because of the nature and complexities?  Thanking you again, Henry

Quest, I DID find info on Westover.   I took screen shots and will look at it tomorrow.   Thanks for the suggestion.  Henry

[JHenry]

6 minutes ago, Cas9 said:

JHenry; I'm picturing you sitting on the bed with your potential sex partner and suddenly bringing in an easel with graphs and charts. Not very romantic 

LOL, not me!   I’d do a PowerPoint presentation!   In truth, you are not far off, I can be pretty extreme and it’s only gotten worse 😩

[Quest]

I found the  disclosure flyers and the pamphlet download and put it into another thread. (Disclosing section)

it is in layman's terms and don't sell yourself short. On the NCBI articles a lot of times you can understand them well enough. 

Edited July 22, 2019 by Quest

[JHenry]

15 hours ago, LightafterDarkness said:

I have seen the following numbers quoted on Reddit but I dont have a source (and yes reddit is not a good source, need the underlying medical research). My understanding is Male to female is going to be up to 2x (so doing nothing you have up to a 8% chance):

Source: https://www.reddit.com/r/Herpes/comments/adin0v/transmission_rate_from_female_to_male/

 

Reddit goes on to say that over time, asymptomatic shedding declines.  I knew this, but is there any validated study/information to support this statement?

I was not aware that AFTER year one, using anti-virals, it was reduced to 2% shedding.  I thought it was closer to 5%.   I’ve had this for 25+ years, wondering what the shedding rate could/would be while taking Valtrex?